Policy makers and managers are increasingly concerned about the effects of disturbance on wildlife populations, and in situations where management or conservation decisions need to be made, expert elicitation (asking experts for their judgements in a careful, structured process) is a viable way to provide short-term filling of knowledge gaps (we always recommend this to guide research and that expert elicitation is replaced with data in the future!).
The idea of this e-learning course is for experts to get exposure to the kinds of judgements they will be required to make, before the workshop itself, and in a relaxed, self-paced way.

Expert elicitation is not an easy process and we have found that invited experts are often unfamiliar with the process and how to express uncertainty in their parameter estimates. Therefore, as part of the PCoD+ project, funded by the United States Office of Naval Research, one of the project tasks was to create a course for experts to take prior to attending an expert elicitation workshop so that they can better understand the process and get exposure to the kinds of judgements they will be required to make, before the workshop itself, and in a relaxed, self-paced way.

Take the course

The “Probabilistic Judgments for Expert Elicitation” course is an open-access, self-paced e-learning course. If you are interested in trying it out please follow the links below for the five modules:

Based on the feedback of users, we’ve found that some people experience issues when working through Module 4, with the MATCH-tool elements. We’ve also had a lot of feedback from experts whose probability distributions didn’t look as they expected based on their judgements. As such we’ve created a guide to the MATCH tool (housed on a separate website). If you have any difficulty with Module 4 or want to explore this further – please check out our hand MATCH-Tool-How-To-Guide_online.pdf (874 downloads) .

Please tell us what you think of the course, any feedback is much appreciated!

The work conducted to create this course was led by Dr Leslie New and Prof Tony O’Hagan and many thanks to Grifo Multimedia for the screen designs and programming of these modules.

Please note:

  • If you stop in the middle of a module, you will be asked when you start it again when you next return to the module.
  • Some users have experienced difficulties in the final module which seems to be related to which browser and version of flash they are using. We are still investigating this problem. If you find that the module stops running (leaving you with a blank screen with some pulsing circles that does not move on after a minute or more), then simply close the module. You will have finished the course but unfortunately will not receive feedback on your last set of judgements. You can try another browser but will have to re-start the module.
  • Minimum recommended specifications:
    • We’ve tested it on the following computer OS/browser/flash combinations:
      • Windows 8, 64 bit. Java version 8.0.1210.13
      • Chrome: version 63.0.3239.84. Latest flash (embedded).
      • Firefox: version 54.0, flash player version: